Groups Don't Brainstorm Well

Marc Anderseen, founder of Netscape and Ning, posted an interesting thought from a book called the Medici Effect:

Brainstorming [is] used in nearly all of the world's largeset companies, nonprofits, and government organizations. And the reasons seem obvious... "The average person can think of twice as many ideas when working with a group than when working alone."... But is it true?

In 1958... psychologists let groups of four people brainstorm about the practical benefits or difficulties that would arise if everyone had an extra thumb on each hand after next year. These people were called "real groups" since they actually brainstormed together. Next, the researchers let "virtual groups" of four people generate ideas around the "thumb problem", but they had to brainstorm individually, in separate rooms. The researchers combined the answers they received from each [virtual group] individual and eliminated redundancies... They then compared the performance between real groups and virtual groups...

To their surprise, the researchers found that virtual groups, where people brainstormed individually, generated nearly twice as many ideas as the real groups.

The result, it turned out, is not an anomaly. In a [1987 study, researchers] concluded that brainstorming groups have never outperformed virtual groups. Of the 25 reported experiments by psychologists all over the world, real groups have never once been shown to be more productive than virtual groups. In fact, real groups that engage in brainstorming consistently generate about half the number of ideas they would have produced if the group's individuals had [worked] alone.

In addition, in the studies where the quality of ideas was measured, researchers found that the total number of good ideas was much higher in virtual groups than in real groups.

I think it's because when we brainstorm in groups, we are driven to want to reach consensus, and we are more likely to filter our ideas. It makes sense that it's better to brainstorm individually and then filter collectively.

Short the Sony Style, Go Long on Apple Stores

I walked into a Sony Style flagship store with one of my coworkers to look at cameras today. We didn't end up buying anything, and on our way out I asked her if she was short or long on the Sony Store.

We talked about it for a little bit. The store was interestingly designed and well staffed. And the cameras we tried out were okay, but we didn't have anything to compare it to. We wanted to see other cameras. That's where the store fell short. But the Apple stores have been a huge success, and they don't necessarily have competitors in their stores?

The conclusion we came to was that Sony products just aren't differentiated the way that Apple products are differentiated. Sony laptops need to be compared to HP laptops, IBM laptops, and Dell laptops - they all operate Windows. But if you're going to buy an Apple, you know you want an Apple. It's an entirely different operating system, an entirely different feel, an entirely different image. It is that fundamental quality that Sony lacks - Sony is just another technology producer competing on price and quality along with all the other tech players. You can't have the stand alone store without some comparisons.

Short the Sony Style, Go Long on Apple Stores.

Bleeping the F-Word on TV, Does It Make A Difference?

A month ago, the US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit overturned an FCC ruling against Fox for airing expletives that Cher said during the 2002 Billboard Music Awards. The court said that the FCC lacked clear criteria, as they allowed the f-word slide in the Bono's 2003 Golden Globe acceptance speech when he said "This is really, really, fucking brilliant. Really, really, great."

In response, the House passed a bill reaffirming the FCC's ability to regulate even fleeting f-words, especially since, as Ted Stevens (R, AK) said, "Radio and broadcast TV are still the way most Americans get their news and entertainment. And whether sitting in a car with your children or in front of the TV, the American public should be able to expect that they will not be barraged with unexpected indecency, whether it is through an image or a word."

What I find so amusing about this legislation is that kids are watching less TV and surfing the web more. A recent survey showed that 77% of teens could live without TV, compared with 23% who said the could live without the Internet. In addition, another study found that parents are actually watching more television than their kids!

So my real question is: in the rising age of YouTube and the Internet, does it really make a difference to bleep out fleeting f-words on TV?

The Secret to Entrepreneurism

Marc Andreessen, one of the founders of Netscape, posted an interesting thought a little while back on his blog that has been stewing in my mind. He said, and I'm paraphrasing, that what makes a successful business is more often the size of the market and the intensity of the need for the business, as opposed to the quality of the team or product.

If you ask entrepreneurs or VCs which of team, product, or market is most important, many will say team. This is the obvious answer, in part because in the beginning of a startup, you know a lot more about the team than you do the product, which hasn't been built yet, or the market, which hasn't been explored yet...

On the other hand, if you ask engineers, many will say product. This is a product business, startups invent products, customers buy and use the products. Apple and Google are the best companies in the industry today because they build the best products. Without the product there is no company. Just try having a great team and no product, or a great market and no product. What's wrong with you? Now let me get back to work on the product.

Personally, I'll take the third position -- I'll assert that market is the most important factor in a startup's success or failure.

Why?

In a great market -- a market with lots of real potential customers -- the market pulls product out of the startup

He goes on to talk about how a bad team with a mediocre product and a thriving market will succeed every time, whereas a great team with a mediocre or great product in a small market may fail.

It reminded me of my FNCE 101 teacher who said that 45% of a stock's performance is based on the overall market. That's almost half of a stock's performance! In a bad economy, the macro markets shrink which will adversely affect most businesses, regardless of team and product.

It's an interesting lens to look through when investing. If the Baby Boomers are getting older or the population is become more Latino, then there are new, growing markets that are going to surge even mediocre products to success. How do you get in front of those trends? Anyone want to invest in Univision with me?

Pictures from California

I have taken a few pictures out in Cali. This album includes Israel Day, my apartment, my work, the San Francisco Pride Parade, Stanford, my first business trip, and southern California.

Enjoy: http://www.flickr.com/photos/8299651@N05/sets/72157600830048576/show/

So You Have High Cholesterol...

After my 21st birthday, I got a physical to make sure I was healthy and alive. They looked perplexed when I came in though because, according to my doctor, I only need a checkup once every five years, since I'm in the prime of my life. They did the normal tests, and the doctor said he'd only call if something was up.

I got a call Tuesday from a nurse telling me that my cholesterol was 217, and the doctor wanted it to go under 200. The number 217 means nothing to me, so I just figure I need to cut my cholesterol intake by about 10%. So I ventured onto the web to find out what in my diet I could keep, and what I had to do away with.

Here's my top three foods I will miss:

1) Cheese. I love cheese. There is such a great variety of cheeses out there with nuances in flavor. I would literally buy a block of cheese and crackers and demolish it. Unfortunately, cheese is also high in cholesterol. It breaks my heart but I will have to say goodbye to cheese.

2) Italian Cold Cuts. Goodbye salami, pastrami, and corn beef. In a quarter pound corn beef sandwich, I was taking in 96 mg of cholesterol. A quarter pound roast beef sandwich, on the other hand, has only 34 mg of cholesterol.

3) Fast Food. I'm not sure how exactly I'm going to do this once I get back to school (or even at Berkeley), but I'm going to have to cut fast food. That's going to start with the burritos from Qdoba, lamb gyro from Greek Lady, and chicken carbonara from Quizno's. That was pretty much my diet back at Penn.

My new favorites I'm going to be getting cozy with:

1) HUMMUS! I think it's going to have to be my cheese replacement. It's so good, and has no cholesterol.

2) Roast beef, chicken, and turkey. These are replacing my Italian cold cuts.

3) Orange Juice. A study from the University of Western Ontario, found that three glasses a day of orange juice--any orange juice--for four weeks raised HDL levels 21 percent and improved the ratio of good to bad cholesterol by 16 percent.

4) Oatmeal and Cheerios.

5) Wheat bread

So that's the plan. I'm hoping by making little tweaks in my diet and substituting little things that I can make a big difference. I'm going to have to figure out how it'll work at school though.
I also think I'm going to get my cholesterol check more than once every five years. Tracking progress I think is a pretty important part of keeping a goal.

IdealBite Sample Newsletter

Here's a sample IdealBite Newsletter:

You want to do your part to save energy, but aren't sure where to start?

The Bite

There are a 101 different ways to conserve energy around the house...here are just 8 ideas to recap our Home Energy Week. These little changes done often can mean large savings, reducing your energy bill by up to 50%.

The Benefits

• Use power strips to turn off TVs and stereos to save the energy equivalent of a 100-watt light bulb that’s always on.
• Switch to NiMH rechargeable batteries for alarm clocks, remotes, and small appliances.
• Install compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs), which last 6 to 10 times longer than conventional ones and are more energy efficient.
• In winter months, draw curtains and use tight-fitting, insulating window shades. Storm windows reduce heat loss through the windows by 25 to 50% (but if it's nice out, open shades on the sunny part of your home to harness the sun's heat).
• Unplug chargers (think cell phones and iPods) when not in use. Only 5% of the power drawn by a cell phone charger is used to charge the phone. The other 95% is wasted when it is left plugged into the wall.
• Configure your computer to "hibernate" automatically after 15 minutes of inactivity, and shut it down when you are done for the day (yes, we know there are naysayers out there – we stand by our research).
• Use ceiling fans in the summer AND winter. By reversing the direction of the blades in the winter, warm air is pushed down, and heat is distributed throughout the house.
• Unplug seldom-used appliances such as an extra refrigerator to shave up to $10 off your monthly utility bill.

Personally Speaking

How many Biters does it take to change one of our light bulbs? Doesn’t matter - since we switched to compact fluorescents, we haven’t had to worry about changing light bulbs.

Wanna Try?

• Real Goods - compact fluorescent light bulbs and other sustainable products ($10/bulb).
• Smart Strip Power Strip - monitors power consumption and shuts off power when a device is turned off; pays for itself in energy savings in 2 months ($30.95).
• Kill A Watt - measure the energy efficiency of your appliances with this nifty device ($39.95).
• Home Energy Tune-Up - residential inspection to help identify energy efficiency problem areas.

Where Live Earth Stops, IdealBite.com Picks Up

On the plane ride back from DC, I watched Live Earth on the DirectTV screens on my JetBlue fligt. I loved watching the live music, and I think the awareness that Al Gore was tryingto raise is always a good thing. The one thing I couldn't figure out is what they wanted to me to do. They raised all this awareness, but they a compelling call to action besides carpooling, changing my light bulbs, and promising to help the environment. Like Seth Godin said, they need to make the effects of global warming immediate and show how its our behavior times a million that makes a difference.

Then I was reading Time's 50 best websites which included a website called IdealBite.com

Ideal Bite serves up eco-friendly tips with a mixture of heart and sass, and doesn't ask you to compromise your personal style or comfort. Call it Green Lite; down to earth and practical, not preachy, Ideal Bite supplements its guidance with "Bang for the Bite" fun tidbits and "cocktail factoids" that speak to its playful approach

I really believe that people, especially our generation, is worried about the environment, but we just don't know what to do in our own lives to help the cause. This site is a great answer. I'm adding the daily tip (http://www.idealbite.com/tiplibrary/today) to my RSS feed.

Internship Thought of the Day

Most people I talk to seem to be happy with their internships. I almost wonder whether expectations are so low for internships, that anything more substantial than copying papers is seen as a great job.

Axe Body Spray of the Toothpaste Aisle

Axe Body Spray is such a remarkable brand. In just four years, they took a mature and BORING category (men's deodorant), and shook it up with sexy advertising and clever marketing. Why doesn't anyone do that for toothpaste? It's such a boring category.

World Health Increasing

A great video showing the changes in family size and fertility rates across the world over time. Really interesting.

Ten Politically Incorrect Truths About Human Nature

Interesting article from the perspective of a Darwinist:

Ten Politically Incorrect Truths About Human Nature
Why most suicide bombers are Muslim, beautiful people have more daughters, humans are naturally polygamous, sexual harassment isn't sexist, and blonds are more attractive.

Amzanighuh?

Microsoft Surface

You gotta check this out:

http://www.microsoft.com/surface/

Politics through the Lens of an Economist

I just read a great book called Freakonomics (which I will probably reference a lot), and I loved the book because it got me to see the world through a slightly different lens - the lens of an economist.

One of the basic tenets of economics is that people respond to incentives, and if systems aren't working the way you thought that they'd work, that often means you have incentives misaligned.

Now lets take that lens and look at how we elect a President. I think that the skills needed to win the presidency are not a good indicator of how good of a leader the President will be.

Presidents are elected by popular vote, which means that the skills to become President are based on your marketing skills. It's a question of how well can you create a powerful, unified message about who you are and who your opponent is. In the last election, Bush was cast as the "regular man" and Kerry as a "flip-flopper." As a result, more people liked the regular man as opposed to the flip-flopper.

It had nothing to do with relative intelligence, coherent policies, or accountability. It was based on who the common man liked more. The winner was the party who was the best mass marketer.

In this coming election, we see much of the same mass-marketing happening again. Hilary and Barack are putting out YouTube messages galore, and it's been a race to see who can get the most marketing dollars. Now don't get me wrong, oftentimes the best marketer can make a great leader, and many of the characteristics do overlap. But as we can see with this past president, there is a slight divergence when the message of the leader is more appealing than the actual content of the leader.

What's a better system? In my opinion, the parliamentary system makes more sense. I obviously don't know the ins and outs of the system, but to me, it makes more sense that the legislative body should elect their own leader to run the system. Why? Because they know each other more intimately - their REAL leadership qualities, abilities, and shortcomings - better than the public ever could. They are far better informed and care more than the average man.

I realize this is idle fodder because the American political is not changing anytime soon, but I thought it was something interesting to think about.

How do you make sure that you align the skills and incentives with the goal of having a great leader?

China Revisited: Democracy is a Joke

In one of my recent posts, I talked about how China may be unprepared for any economic disaster, and I asked what would happen to the political situation if there was an economic downturn.

I was reminded today by a friend in the Huntsman program that the Chinese aren't necessarily unsatisfied with their government's structure, and they may not turn against it in bad times. He said that his family is from China, and when times go bad, they tend to think more about how to get by rather than blame it on the government.

It reminded me of a story Aman wrote about when he was staying in China over the summer. He said that when he mentioned voting/democracy to two Chinese college students, they kind of laughed. They said, "Yeah, we actually had local elections a few weeks ago. It was pretty silly because I didn't know either of the candidates, so I just voted for the one with the funny name." In other words, democracy didn't seem like a real alternative to communism to them.

Regardless, I am still skeptical that the government would see no political backlash from an economic downturn; although I do understand that the current government has a powerful status quo in place that will be difficult to change. I suppose we can just hope for the best.

Redondo Beach = Heaven

This weekend I've been staying at my friend Anthony's house in Redondo Beach, and it's been an amazing experience. The weather is the perfect temperature every day of the week, and his house sits on a hill overlooking the ocean. His housing development is set up so that no one is allowed to build high enough to block anyone else's view of the ocean.

We've been doing all sorts of outdoor activities. Yesterday I went surfing at about 8:30 AM, and not only was the water warm, but dolphins literally swam alongside us at arm's length. Anthony said they like to body surf with the waves too. Surfing actually took a tremendous amount of upper body strength because you have to both push yourself up each time to get up on the board and you have to paddle past the waves. Needless to say I wasn't very good.

We also biked around his community, which is actually where they taped some of the TV show, The OC. Californian architecture is pretty different from East Coast architecture because the houses are lower to the ground and they tend to sit on less land. The biggest houses are more like compounds than mansions. Anthony's mom says she sometimes dreams that she opens a door in her house and finds more space. But the location is second to none.

We walked around Santa Monica Blvd tonight, and they had a ton of street performers. The street was packed for a Sunday night, and it seemed like the place to be. I think the Northern VA area really misses out on a communal place like that (besides the mall).

I met up with my friend Andrew Pollen today as well, and we took a trip down to see the Watts Towers. It's difficult to describe without seeing it, but it's basically one big cement structure that one poor Italian man built over a 30 year time span. He made it out of scrap metal, cement, and broken bottles he found around. One of the towers is 99 feet tall, and he built it by climbing up each layer to add another layer. The guy was obviously a bit nuts.

All-in-all, I'm just astounded at how much of a paradise that Anthony lives in. Every morning I wake up here, I go outside and I'm just astounded at how beautiful it is. It's yet another place I aspire to live.